Brief
Week 30 / 2026 Finalized
Jul 20 – Jul 26, 2026
Finalized at 06:00 EAT · Published weekly on Mondays
Week at a Glance
Key takeaway
The intersection of military operations and humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Sudan is creating a complex crisis, with food insecurity and displacement tracking closely with security incidents in key regions.
In Sudan, the capture of strategic towns by the Sudanese Armed Forces and accusations of chemical weapons attacks have led to increased tensions and displacement. The numbers are stark: 80 million facing food insecurity in Ethiopia, and a critical aid deficit in Tigray IDP sites.
The involvement of external actors, such as the UAE's purchase of Chinese weapons for the RSF, is further complicating the crisis, with potential implications for the humanitarian situation and the prospects for a peaceful resolution.
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Stability IndexWeek of 2026-07-20
42Significant instability · ↓1 vs last week
501 events41 high-severity48 active regions387 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 42
Volume 0
Severity 76
High-Sev 92
Escalation 48
Spread 0
Actors 0
Top Risk Regions
Tigray: 21 events, avg sev 2.7
Addis Ababa: 31 events, avg sev 1.6
North Kordofan: 11 events, avg sev 3.5
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Total Events501 vs 478 +5%
economic185 vs 182 +2%
political125 vs 124 +1%
security79 vs 39 +103%
humanitarian71 vs 85 -16%
infrastructure24 vs 30 -20%
legal17 vs 18 -6%
High-Severity Events
EscalationEthiopia — Amhara, TigrayMajor3 developments
Ethiopia faces food insecurity
Nearly 80 million Ethiopians are facing food insecurity, according to estimates that exclude the Tigray region. The food insecurity issue affects a significant portion of the country's population
Estimates indicate nearly 80 million Ethiopians are facing food insecurity, excluding the Tigray region
Ethiopia escalates Amhara military operations
The Ethiopian government is accused of increasing military operations in the Amhara region, despite promoting national dialogue, according to Borkena reports. This escalation occurs in a region that has seen ongoing tensions and conflict.
Borkena reports accuse the Ethiopian government of increasing military operations in Amhara.
Tigray IDP sites face aid deficit
Tigray IDP sites in Ethiopia are experiencing a critical aid deficit amid a surge in new arrivals, according to The Reporter Ethiopia, with specific needs and numbers of affected individuals not specified in the initial report
2 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
The Reporter Ethiopia reports a surge in new arrivals at Tigray IDP sites, citing a critical aid deficit.
EscalationSudan — North KordofanMajor5 developments
Sudan army captures North Kordofan towns
The Sudanese Armed Forces claim to have captured the strategic towns of Bara and Jabra El in North Kordofan, while the Rapid Support Forces-aligned government accuses the Sudan army of a 'chemical weapons attack' in the region
13 articles across 2 sources: Dabanga Radio, Google News Sudan
Sudanese Armed Forces claim capture of Bara and Jabra El towns in North Kordofan.
Burhan vows to eradicate RSF
Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has vowed to eradicate the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as peace talks between the two sides have stalled, according to the Sudan Tribune, with no clear resolution in sight for the conflict in Sudan
Burhan's public vow to eradicate RSF indicates a significant escalation of tensions between the two forces.
Al-Burhan vows retribution against RSF
Sudan's military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has pledged to take action against the Rapid Support Forces, rejecting any peace deal that does not dismantle the militia, amid ongoing tensions in the country
Al-Burhan's public statement rejects any peace deal without RSF dismantling, indicating a hardline stance.
Sudan demands RSF withdrawal
Sudan is demanding the full withdrawal of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) from civilian areas before considering any ceasefire, amid ongoing tensions between the two sides. The demand comes as part of efforts to de-escalate the conflict in the country.
Sudan's demand for RSF withdrawal from civilian areas is a precondition for ceasefire talks, as stated in the latest news reports.
UAE buys Chinese arms for RSF
The UAE has purchased Chinese weapons for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), potentially prolonging the conflict in Sudan, according to a US military magazine report, with no official confirmation from the UAE or Sudanese governments
A US military magazine reports the UAE's purchase of Chinese weapons for the RSF, citing no specific sources.
US contractor linked to RSF supply chains
A Reuters investigation has found that Boeing planes are being used to link a US contractor to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) supply chains in Sudan, with specific details on the involvement still emerging from the report
2 articles across 1 sources: Google News Sudan
Reuters investigation documents Boeing planes facilitating supply chains between a US contractor and the RSF in Sudan.
US court enforces award against South Sudan
A US court has enforced a billion-dollar award against South Sudan, as reported by Global Arbitration Review, with the exact details of the award and the parties involved not specified
A US court has enforced a billion-dollar award against South Sudan, according to Global Arbitration Review.
Hot Regions
Tigray21 events (avg sev 2.7) -28% vs last week
Addis Ababa31 events (avg sev 1.6) -35% vs last week
North Kordofan11 events (avg sev 3.5) +267% vs last week
Khartoum12 events (avg sev 2.2) +50% vs last week
Western Equatoria10 events (avg sev 2.2) +233% vs last week
Central Equatoria11 events (avg sev 1.5) -21% vs last week
Darfur5 events (avg sev 3) -17% vs last week
Amhara4 events (avg sev 3.3) -20% vs last week
Blue Nile5 events (avg sev 2.6) -37% vs last week
Jonglei4 events (avg sev 3.3) +33% vs last week
Actor Activity
China9 mentions (was 3) +200%
Egypt18 mentions (was 7) +157%
European Union12 mentions (was 6) +100%
African Development Fund8 mentions (was 0) +100%
African Development Bank10 mentions (was 6) +67%
Government of South Sudan49 mentions (was 31) +58%
Government of Sudan14 mentions (was 10) +40%
Saudi Arabia7 mentions (was 5) +40%
South Sudan19 mentions (was 15) +27%
Sudanese army10 mentions (was 9) +11%