The conflict in Sudan is driving a humanitarian crisis, with violence in North Kordofan and Darfur resulting in civilian casualties and displacement, which in turn is straining the political landscape.
The recent drone attacks in El Obeid, which killed civilians and knocked out power and hospitals, exemplify the humanitarian consequences of the conflict, with at least 1,000 civilians killed in drone attacks in Sudan this year. The systematic use of sexual violence by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) as a weapon of war, as reported in South Darfur, North Kordofan, and North Darfur, further underscores the severity of the humanitarian situation.
The UN's warning of a potential repeat of atrocities similar to those in el-Fasher if the RSF proceeds with the offensive on el-Obeid highlights the urgent need for a ceasefire.
The surge in humanitarian events in Sudan tracks geographically with the security escalation in Darfur, with displacement from el-Fasher and aid convoy attacks along the same corridor suggesting access is narrowing precisely where need is greatest. The political implications of this crisis are evident in the UN Security Council's demand for the RSF to halt their assault on El Obeid, and the warning by The Reporter Ethiopia of a potential second civil war in Ethiopia due to ongoing tensions and instability, which may be exacerbated by the regional instability caused by the Sudan conflict.
The deployment of thousands of RSF fighters around Obeid amid the tribal war escalation in South Darfur also suggests that the conflict is drawing in multiple actors and factions, further complicating the political landscape.
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Stability IndexWeek of 2026-06-15Provisional
41Significant instability · → 0 vs last week
468 events50 high-severity32 active regions385 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 41
Volume0
Severity73
High-Sev89
Escalation48
Spread0
Actors0
Top Risk Regions
Tigray: 36 events, avg sev 2.7
Addis Ababa: 38 events, avg sev 1.7
North Kordofan: 13 events, avg sev 3.8
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Total Events468 so far (≈546 projected) vs 523 last week +4%
economic148 so far (≈173 proj.) vs 173 unchanged
humanitarian130 so far (≈152 proj.) vs 106 +43%
political109 so far (≈127 proj.) vs 96 +32%
security50 so far (≈58 proj.) vs 81 -28%
legal18 so far (≈21 proj.) vs 44 -52%
infrastructure13 so far (≈15 proj.) vs 23 -35%
High-Severity Events
EscalationSudan — North KordofanCritical3 developments
Sudan war kills 1,000 civilians
The UN has warned that the war in Sudan is deepening, with at least 1,000 civilians killed in drone attacks so far this year. The conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian concerns, with the UN sounding the alarm on the escalating violence.
The UN has confirmed at least 1,000 civilian deaths from drone attacks in Sudan this year.
UN demands RSF halt El Obeid assault
The UN Security Council is demanding that the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) halt their assault on El Obeid, Sudan, amid fears of a mass atrocity, with the situation sparking international concern, and the city being a key location in North Kordofan state. The RSF has been involved in clashes with the Sudanese army in recent weeks.
RSF assault on El Obeid prompts UN Security Council demand for halt amid mass atrocity fears.
UN warns RSF against el-Obeid offensive
The United Nations has warned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to cease an imminent offensive on el-Obeid in Sudan's North Kordofan region, citing concerns of a potential repeat of atrocities similar to those in el-Fasher, according to UN's Volker Turk
2 articles across 2 sources: Middle East Eye, Google News Sudan
UN's Volker Turk warned of a potential repeat of el-Fasher atrocities if the RSF proceeds with the offensive.
EscalationSudan — South Darfur, North Kordofan, North DarfurCritical5 developments
RSF uses sexual violence in Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are systematically using sexual violence as a weapon of war in Sudan, according to an official report, with specific details on the scope and nature of these abuses not publicly disclosed
An official report confirms the systematic use of sexual violence by RSF as a weapon of war.
RSF deploys fighters amid Sudan tribal war
The arrest of a Beni Halba leader has triggered a new escalation in the tribal war with the Salamat in South Darfur, with thousands of RSF fighters deployed around Obeid, amid fighting between the two tribes that are key constituencies within the RSF's sphere of influence
Thousands of RSF fighters have been deployed around Obeid amid the tribal war escalation.
RSF drones strike El Obeid
RSF drones have struck El Obeid, knocking out power and hospitals in the city, with the attack causing significant disruptions to essential services, according to Sudan Tribune
RSF drones knocked out power and hospitals in El Obeid, as reported by Sudan Tribune.
RSF shells El-Obeid, crippling medical facilities
RSF shelling has crippled medical facilities and water stations in Sudan's El-Obeid, according to medics, with the city's healthcare and water supply severely impacted
Medics report RSF shelling has crippled El-Obeid's medical facilities and water stations.
RSF drone kills 9 civilians in North Darfur
A drone strike by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has killed 9 civilians in North Darfur, according to a report by Anadolu Agency, which cites a local source
Anadolu Agency reports 9 civilian fatalities from an RSF drone strike in North Darfur.
Ethiopia faces risk of second civil war
Ethiopia is at risk of a second civil war, according to The Reporter Ethiopia, with concerns over ongoing tensions and instability in the country, particularly after the end of the two-year conflict in Tigray in November 2022
The Reporter Ethiopia warns of a potential second civil war due to ongoing tensions and instability in the country.
Minister says Machar will die in jail
South Sudan's minister has stated that opposition leader Riek Machar will die in jail, amid ongoing political tensions in the country, specifically in the capital Juba
Majorpolitical / detentionSouth Sudan — Central Equatoriareportedsource
Minister's public statement threatens Machar's life in detention as reported by Sudans Post
Hot Regions
Tigray36 events (avg sev 2.7) +31% vs last week
Addis Ababa38 events (avg sev 1.7) +13% vs last week
North Kordofan13 events (avg sev 3.8) +88% vs last week
Upper Nile9 events (avg sev 2.6) +83% vs last week
Central Equatoria12 events (avg sev 1.8) +180% vs last week
Amhara7 events (avg sev 2.4) +60% vs last week
Khartoum9 events (avg sev 1.9) -45% vs last week
Jonglei5 events (avg sev 3.2) -14% vs last week
North Darfur3 events (avg sev 3.7) +33% vs last week
Northern Ethiopia3 events (avg sev 2.7) +300% vs last week
Actor Activity
US17 mentions (was 4) +400%
United Nations19 mentions (was 5) +340%
Egypt16 mentions (was 6) +217%
Government of South Sudan34 mentions (was 20) +100%
US Government9 mentions (was 0) +100%
Kerala health authorities8 mentions (was 0) +100%
Kenya7 mentions (was 5) +60%
Nigeria17 mentions (was 13) +54%
TPLF13 mentions (was 10) +50%
Ethiopia50 mentions (was 39) +49%
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