Brief
Week at a Glance
Key takeaway
The resurgence of conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region is driving a humanitarian crisis, with displacement and aid disruptions concentrated along the same corridors where clashes between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal army have intensified.
The Tigray authorities' accusation of a military offensive by the federal government has reignited fears of a return to war in the region, which has a history of conflict with the central government. Clashes between Ethiopian government forces and Amhara regional forces have also resulted in displacement and casualties in the Amhara Region.
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray is closely linked to the security escalation, with the surge in displacement and aid disruptions tracking geographically with the clashes between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal army. The economic consequences of the conflict are also becoming apparent, with Ethiopia losing $24.
6 billion to trade mis-invoicing between 2006 and 2015, according to the African Development Bank.
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Stability IndexWeek of 2026-08-03Provisional
40Significant instability · ↓2 vs last week
181 events39 high-severity31 active regions164 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 40
Volume 0
Severity 62
High-Sev 78
Escalation 65
Spread 0
Actors 0
Top Risk Regions
Tigray: 49 events, avg sev 3.3
Addis Ababa: 11 events, avg sev 1.8
North Kordofan: 5 events, avg sev 4
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Total Events181 so far (≈422 projected) vs 606 last week -30%
security63 so far (≈147 proj.) vs 126 +17%
economic52 so far (≈121 proj.) vs 212 -43%
humanitarian37 so far (≈86 proj.) vs 98 -12%
political18 so far (≈42 proj.) vs 138 -70%
legal6 so far (≈14 proj.) vs 14 unchanged
infrastructure5 so far (≈12 proj.) vs 18 -33%
High-Severity Events
Ethiopia attack kills 208, abducts 100
A tribal attack in Ethiopia has resulted in 208 deaths and the abduction of 100 people, with the incident reportedly occurring in a region of the country, although the specific location was not provided in the initial report.
2 articles across 2 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Google News South Sudan
The attack resulted in 208 confirmed deaths and 100 abductions.
EscalationSudan — North DarfurMajor2 developments
Sudan crisis affects 35 million
The Sudan crisis has left 35 million people in need of aid, according to recent reports. The humanitarian situation in Sudan has been exacerbated by ongoing conflict and instability.
35 million people are in need of aid due to the crisis in Sudan.
Iran-linked drones strike Darfur
Iran-linked drones have been used in a strike in Sudan's Darfur region, marking a new development in the conflict, with reports emerging on the incident's impact on the war
3 articles across 2 sources: Google News Sudan, France24 Africa
A drone strike occurred in Darfur, reportedly linked to Iran, as stated by thearabweekly.com.
Sudan army repels RSF in North Darfur
The Sudanese army has repelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in two areas of North Darfur, according to the governor, amid ongoing clashes in the region
3 articles across 3 sources: Google News Sudan, Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency
Governor confirms Sudanese army repelled RSF in two areas of North Darfur
EscalationEthiopia — Tigray, AmharaMajor5 developments
Ethiopia faces human rights crisis
Ethiopia is experiencing a human rights crisis, prompting calls for international action, with specific details on the situation not provided in the initial report, but the crisis is deemed severe enough to warrant external intervention, according to Borkena
Borkena reports a severe human rights crisis in Ethiopia, prompting calls for international intervention.
Fighting resumes in Tigray
Fighting has resumed in Ethiopia's Tigray region, prompting civilians to flee, amid fears of renewed conflict. The clashes come after a period of relative calm in the region.
26 articles across 7 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Google News Sudan, France24 Africa, RFI Africa, Mada Masr, Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency
Civilians are fleeing due to resumed fighting in Tigray, as reported by Agenzia Fides.
Ethiopians flee Tigray amid renewed conflict
Hundreds of Ethiopians have fled to neighbouring Sudan after fighting flared up in western Tigray, with clashes between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal army reported, despite a pause in fighting since August 1st. The region has not yet recovered from the 2020-2022 war that left 600,000 dead
9 articles across 3 sources: Google News Sudan, Google News Ethiopia, France24 Africa
At least hundreds of Ethiopians have fled to Sudan, following a day-long battle in western Tigray, as reported by AFP.
Ethiopia loses $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing
Ethiopia has lost $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing, according to a warning by the African Development Bank that domestic revenue gaps threaten the country's economic transformation. The loss occurred between 2006 and 2015.
3 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
AfDB reports Ethiopia lost $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing between 2006 and 2015.
Fighting escalates in Amhara Region
Clashes between Ethiopian government forces and Amhara regional forces have resulted in displacement and casualties in the Amhara Region from July 27th to August 2nd, 2026. The Amhara Association of America reported on the ongoing conflict.
Amhara Association of America reported clashes and displacement in the Amhara Region between July 27th and August 2nd, 2026.
Tigray accuses Addis Ababa of launching war
Authorities in Ethiopia's Tigray region accused the federal government of launching a military offensive on Saturday, reigniting fears of a return to war in the region, which has a history of conflict with the central government
5 articles across 2 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Africanews
Tigray authorities accused the federal government of launching a military offensive on Saturday, citing a direct attack.
Hot Regions
Tigray49 events (avg sev 3.3) +200% vs last week
Addis Ababa11 events (avg sev 1.8) -50% vs last week
North Kordofan5 events (avg sev 4) -70% vs last week
Central Equatoria7 events (avg sev 1.9) +300% vs last week
Amhara5 events (avg sev 2.4) -8% vs last week
North Darfur3 events (avg sev 4) +250% vs last week
Upper Nile3 events (avg sev 3) +40% vs last week
Oromia3 events (avg sev 2) -59% vs last week
Eastern Equatoria2 events (avg sev 3) +25% vs last week
Western Tigray2 events (avg sev 3) +400% vs last week
Actor Activity
Tigray forces8 mentions (was 1) +1800%
Ethiopian federal forces7 mentions (was 1) +1500%
Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)5 mentions (was 2) +500%
Ethiopian army6 mentions (was 4) +250%
Government of Sudan6 mentions (was 6) +133%
TPLF12 mentions (was 13) +115%
Ethiopian forces4 mentions (was 6) +50%
African Development Bank4 mentions (was 6) +50%
Government of Ethiopia38 mentions (was 90) -1%
Sudanese army6 mentions (was 27) -48%