Brief
Week 31 / 2026 Finalized
Jul 27 – Aug 2, 2026
Finalized at 06:00 EAT · Published weekly on Mondays
Week at a Glance
Key takeaway
The resurgence of conflict in Ethiopia's Tigray region is driving a humanitarian crisis, with border clashes and military offensives displacing civilians and straining regional stability.
The recent military offensive launched by the federal government in Ethiopia's Tigray region has resulted in a surge of humanitarian events, with reports of Ethiopian refugees being killed in Sudanese camps due to border clashes. This escalation has been marked by specific incidents, including the execution of 17 Ethiopian migrants in Saudi Arabia and the use of Libyan territory to supply Sudan's Rapid Support Forces.
The security escalation in Tigray is closely linked to the humanitarian fallout, with displacement and aid disruption concentrated along the same corridors where military offensives are taking place. The use of a Boeing aircraft linked to a US military contractor to ferry fighters, weapons, and drones to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces has also been reported, suggesting a complex web of external actors contributing to the conflict.
Furthermore, the execution of Ethiopian migrants in Saudi Arabia and the presence of dozens of Ethiopians on death row underscore the far-reaching humanitarian consequences of the conflict, which extend beyond the immediate region to affect civilians in multiple countries.
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Stability IndexWeek of 2026-07-27
39High risk · ↓4 vs last week
606 events77 high-severity39 active regions445 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 39
Volume 0
Severity 74
High-Sev 87
Escalation 40
Spread 0
Actors 0
Top Risk Regions
North Kordofan: 40 events, avg sev 3.4
Tigray: 38 events, avg sev 3.3
Khartoum: 39 events, avg sev 2.7
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Total Events606 vs 501 +21%
economic212 vs 185 +15%
political138 vs 125 +10%
security126 vs 79 +59%
humanitarian98 vs 71 +38%
infrastructure18 vs 24 -25%
legal14 vs 17 -18%
High-Severity Events
EscalationSudan — , Khartoum, Darfur, North Kordofan, KordofanCritical5 developments
RSF detainees' organs traded with Swedish aid
A Swedish company is accused of aiding in the trade of organs from detainees held by the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, with the company failing to comment on the allegations, according to Sudan Horizon
Sudan Horizon reports a Swedish company is accused of aiding in organ trade from RSF detainees.
Ethiopian refugees killed in Sudan camps
Border clashes have spilled into Sudanese refugee camps, resulting in the deaths of Ethiopian refugees, according to a Sudanese official. The incident occurred in a camp near the Ethiopia-Sudan border.
2 articles across 2 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Google News Sudan
An official confirmed that Ethiopian refugees were killed in Sudanese camps due to border clashes.
US contractor supplies RSF with weapons
A Boeing aircraft linked to a US military contractor has been used to ferry fighters, weapons, and drones to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to UN experts, with the aircraft reportedly supplying the RSF in Sudan
6 articles across 1 sources: Google News Sudan
UN experts confirm a Boeing aircraft linked to a US military contractor ferried weapons to Sudan's RSF.
Sudanese army secures North Kordofan export road
The Sudanese army has secured the export road in North Kordofan from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and launched heavy airstrikes on RSF positions in the region, prompting RSF leader Hemedti to order a tactics shift
52 articles across 5 sources: Anadolu Agency, Google News Sudan, Mada Masr, Al Jazeera, Dabanga Radio
Sudanese army launched heavy airstrikes on RSF positions in Kordofan, prompting RSF leader Hemedti to order a tactics shift.
UN reports Libya aids Sudan's RSF
A UN report reveals that Libyan territory is being used in a covert air route to supply Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to Libya Observer. The report does not specify the exact locations or frequency of the flights
A UN report confirms the use of Libyan airspace for supplying Sudan's RSF
Saudi Arabia executes 17 Ethiopian migrants
Saudi Arabia has executed 17 Ethiopian migrants in 2026, with over 70 more facing imminent execution, according to Human Rights Watch. The executions were reported by HRW, which also stated that the migrants had been sentenced to death after unfair trials.
2 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
HRW reported that 17 Ethiopian migrants were executed in Saudi Arabia in 2026, with 70 more facing imminent execution.
EscalationEthiopia — Tigray, WesternMajor3 developments
Tigray accuses Ethiopia of launching offensive
Authorities in Ethiopia's Tigray region accused the federal government of launching a military offensive on Saturday, reigniting fears of a return to war in the region
24 articles across 5 sources: Africanews, Google News Ethiopia, France24 Africa, Al Jazeera, Google News Sudan
Tigray authorities accused the federal government of launching a military offensive, citing a specific action on Saturday.
TPLF launches military push in northern Ethiopia
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has initiated a renewed military push in northern Ethiopia, sparking concerns over regional stability. The push is reportedly focused along the northern Ethiopia fault line.
TPLF forces have been mobilized along the northern Ethiopia fault line, per horn review.
TPLF leaders signal war
TPLF leaders have overtly signaled war, with the faction declaring another round of conflict in Ethiopia, according to ENA English reports on February 2024
2 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
TPLF faction declared another round of conflict, as reported by ENA English.
Ethiopians on Saudi death row appeal
Dozens of Ethiopians, many from Tigray, are awaiting execution in Saudi Arabia, with some contacting the BBC to share their stories. The inmates are facing execution for various crimes.
Dozens of Ethiopians, including many from Tigray, are confirmed to be on death row in Saudi Arabia.
Hot Regions
North Kordofan40 events (avg sev 3.4) +264% vs last week
Tigray38 events (avg sev 3.3) +81% vs last week
Khartoum39 events (avg sev 2.7) +225% vs last week
Addis Ababa52 events (avg sev 1.5) +68% vs last week
Oromia17 events (avg sev 2.1) +750% vs last week
Kordofan9 events (avg sev 3.8) +100% vs last week
Amhara13 events (avg sev 2.5) +225% vs last week
Darfur4 events (avg sev 4) -20% vs last week
Juba9 events (avg sev 1.7) +200% vs last week
Western Equatoria4 events (avg sev 3) -60% vs last week
Actor Activity
Ethiopian Airlines36 mentions (was 4) +800%
TPLF13 mentions (was 2) +550%
African Union21 mentions (was 5) +320%
IGAD10 mentions (was 3) +233%
Sudanese army27 mentions (was 10) +170%
US24 mentions (was 9) +167%
United Nations13 mentions (was 6) +117%
Rapid Support Forces (RSF)68 mentions (was 34) +100%
Ethiopia45 mentions (was 31) +45%
China10 mentions (was 9) +11%