Brief
Week at a Glance
Key takeaway
The conflict in Sudan is driving a humanitarian crisis, with drone attacks and sexual violence by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) contributing to a surge in humanitarian events and displacement in Darfur and North Kordofan.
The UN has warned of at least 1,000 civilian deaths from drone attacks in Sudan this year, and an official report confirms the systematic use of sexual violence by the RSF as a weapon of war. These incidents have occurred in the context of an intensifying conflict, with thousands of RSF fighters deployed around Obeid amid a tribal war escalation.
The surge in humanitarian events tracks geographically with the security escalation in Darfur, with displacement from areas like El Obeid and El Fasher suggesting access is narrowing precisely where need is greatest. The use of sexual violence as a weapon of war by the RSF has been reported in areas like South Darfur and North Darfur, where the conflict has also led to clashes between tribes and the deployment of thousands of fighters.
The political context, including the warning of a potential second civil war in Ethiopia, suggests that the humanitarian crisis in the region may be further exacerbated by ongoing tensions and instability.
Get this brief in your inbox
Delivered every Monday. Free, no account needed.
Stability IndexWeek of 2026-06-15Provisional
41Significant instability · → 0 vs last week
461 events48 high-severity32 active regions382 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 41
Volume 0
Severity 73
High-Sev 90
Escalation 49
Spread 0
Actors 0
Top Risk Regions
Tigray: 35 events, avg sev 2.8
Addis Ababa: 38 events, avg sev 1.7
North Kordofan: 12 events, avg sev 3.8
Unlock the full analytical layer
Risk breakdown, full event archive, trend analytics, CSV/JSON export, and API access
See what\'s includedTopline
Total Events461 so far (≈538 projected) vs 523 last week +3%
economic145 so far (≈169 proj.) vs 173 -2%
humanitarian129 so far (≈151 proj.) vs 106 +42%
political108 so far (≈126 proj.) vs 96 +31%
security48 so far (≈56 proj.) vs 81 -31%
legal18 so far (≈21 proj.) vs 44 -52%
infrastructure13 so far (≈15 proj.) vs 23 -35%
High-Severity Events
EscalationSudan — North KordofanCritical2 developments
Sudan war kills 1,000 civilians
The UN has warned that the war in Sudan is deepening, with at least 1,000 civilians killed in drone attacks so far this year. The conflict has resulted in significant humanitarian concerns, with the UN sounding the alarm on the escalating violence.
3 articles across 1 sources: Google News Sudan
The UN has confirmed at least 1,000 civilian deaths from drone attacks in Sudan this year.
UN warns RSF against el-Obeid offensive
The United Nations has warned the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to cease an imminent offensive on el-Obeid in Sudan's North Kordofan region, citing concerns of a potential repeat of atrocities similar to those in el-Fasher, according to UN's Volker Turk
3 articles across 2 sources: Middle East Eye, Google News Sudan
UN's Volker Turk warned of a potential repeat of el-Fasher atrocities if the RSF proceeds with the offensive.
EscalationSudan — South Darfur, North Kordofan, North DarfurCritical5 developments
RSF uses sexual violence in Sudan
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are systematically using sexual violence as a weapon of war in Sudan, according to an official report, with specific details on the scope and nature of these abuses not publicly disclosed
An official report confirms the systematic use of sexual violence by RSF as a weapon of war.
RSF deploys fighters amid Sudan tribal war
The arrest of a Beni Halba leader has triggered a new escalation in the tribal war with the Salamat in South Darfur, with thousands of RSF fighters deployed around Obeid, amid fighting between the two tribes that are key constituencies within the RSF's sphere of influence
3 articles across 2 sources: Mada Masr, Google News Sudan
Thousands of RSF fighters have been deployed around Obeid amid the tribal war escalation.
RSF drones strike El Obeid
RSF drones have struck El Obeid, knocking out power and hospitals in the city, with the attack causing significant disruptions to essential services, according to Sudan Tribune
RSF drones knocked out power and hospitals in El Obeid, as reported by Sudan Tribune.
RSF shells El-Obeid, crippling medical facilities
RSF shelling has crippled medical facilities and water stations in Sudan's El-Obeid, according to medics, with the city's healthcare and water supply severely impacted
Medics report RSF shelling has crippled El-Obeid's medical facilities and water stations.
RSF drone kills 9 civilians in North Darfur
A drone strike by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has killed 9 civilians in North Darfur, according to a report by Anadolu Agency, which cites a local source
Anadolu Agency reports 9 civilian fatalities from an RSF drone strike in North Darfur.
EscalationEthiopia — TigrayMajor2 developments
Ethiopia faces risk of second civil war
Ethiopia is at risk of a second civil war, according to The Reporter Ethiopia, with concerns over ongoing tensions and instability in the country, particularly after the end of the two-year conflict in Tigray in November 2022
The Reporter Ethiopia warns of a potential second civil war due to ongoing tensions and instability in the country.
Forced conscription returns in Tigray
Forced conscription has resumed in Ethiopia's Tigray region as war looms, according to reports. The region has been on high alert due to escalating tensions and potential conflict.
2 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
Forced conscription has resumed in Tigray, with reports indicating a significant buildup of military presence in the region.
Minister says Machar will die in jail
South Sudan's minister has stated that opposition leader Riek Machar will die in jail, amid ongoing political tensions in the country, specifically in the capital Juba
Minister's public statement threatens Machar's life in detention as reported by Sudans Post
Hot Regions
Tigray35 events (avg sev 2.8) +28% vs last week
Addis Ababa38 events (avg sev 1.7) +13% vs last week
North Kordofan12 events (avg sev 3.8) +75% vs last week
Upper Nile9 events (avg sev 2.6) +83% vs last week
Central Equatoria12 events (avg sev 1.8) +180% vs last week
Khartoum9 events (avg sev 1.9) -45% vs last week
Amhara6 events (avg sev 2.7) +40% vs last week
Jonglei5 events (avg sev 3.2) -14% vs last week
North Darfur3 events (avg sev 3.7) +33% vs last week
Northern Ethiopia3 events (avg sev 2.7) +300% vs last week
Actor Activity
US17 mentions (was 4) +400%
United Nations19 mentions (was 5) +340%
Egypt16 mentions (was 6) +217%
Government of South Sudan34 mentions (was 20) +100%
US Government9 mentions (was 0) +100%
Kerala health authorities8 mentions (was 0) +100%
Kenya7 mentions (was 5) +60%
Nigeria17 mentions (was 13) +54%
TPLF13 mentions (was 10) +50%
Ethiopia50 mentions (was 39) +49%