Brief
Week at a Glance
Key takeaway
The resurgence of violence in Ethiopia's Tigray region is driving a humanitarian crisis, with displacement and casualties concentrated in areas where government forces and Tigray regional forces are clashing.
The recent clashes in Tigray, resulting in hundreds of fatalities and displacements, have been marked by specific incidents such as the tribal attack that killed 208 people and abducted 100, as well as the reported use of Iran-linked drones in Sudan's Darfur region, which has further complicated the conflict. The Tigray authorities' accusation of a federal government military offensive has reignited fears of a return to war, with civilians fleeing the region due to resumed fighting.
The number of displaced people has increased, with hundreds fleeing to neighboring Sudan.
The humanitarian crisis in Tigray is closely linked to the security escalation, with displacement and aid disruption concentrated in areas where government forces and Tigray regional forces are clashing, such as western Tigray, where clashes between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal army have been reported. The economic consequences of the conflict are also becoming apparent, with Ethiopia losing $24.
The political dynamics of the conflict are further complicated by the involvement of external actors, such as Iran, which has been linked to the drone strike in Darfur.
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Stability IndexWeek of 2026-08-03Provisional
37High risk · ↓5 vs last week
178 events38 high-severity31 active regions159 actors
Score Scale — 0 (worst) to 100 (best)
020406080+
▲ 37
Volume 0
Severity 62
High-Sev 79
Escalation 49
Spread 0
Actors 0
Top Risk Regions
Tigray: 49 events, avg sev 3.3
North Kordofan: 5 events, avg sev 4
Addis Ababa: 10 events, avg sev 1.8
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Total Events178 so far (≈623 projected) vs 606 last week +3%
security63 so far (≈221 proj.) vs 126 +75%
economic52 so far (≈182 proj.) vs 212 -14%
humanitarian36 so far (≈126 proj.) vs 98 +29%
political16 so far (≈56 proj.) vs 138 -59%
legal6 so far (≈21 proj.) vs 14 +50%
infrastructure5 so far (≈18 proj.) vs 18 unchanged
High-Severity Events
Ethiopia attack kills 208, abducts 100
A tribal attack in Ethiopia has resulted in 208 deaths and the abduction of 100 people, with the incident reportedly occurring in a region of the country, although the specific location was not provided in the initial report.
2 articles across 2 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Google News South Sudan
The attack resulted in 208 confirmed deaths and 100 abductions.
EscalationSudan — North Darfur, South KordofanMajor3 developments
Sudan army repels RSF in North Darfur
The Sudanese army has repelled the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in two areas of North Darfur, according to the governor, amid ongoing clashes in the region
3 articles across 3 sources: Google News Sudan, Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency
Governor confirms Sudanese army repelled RSF in two areas of North Darfur
Iran-linked drones strike Darfur
Iran-linked drones have been used in a strike in Sudan's Darfur region, marking a new development in the conflict, with reports emerging on the incident's impact on the war
3 articles across 2 sources: Google News Sudan, France24 Africa
A drone strike occurred in Darfur, reportedly linked to Iran, as stated by thearabweekly.com.
Sudan army advances on RSF
Sudan's army chief announced that the military is advancing on all fronts to eliminate the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by the end of 2026, according to Sudan Tribune
Sudan's army chief publicly stated the military's intention to eliminate the RSF by the end of 2026.
EscalationEthiopia — Tigray, AmharaMajor5 developments
Ethiopia faces human rights crisis
Ethiopia is experiencing a human rights crisis, prompting calls for international action, with specific details on the situation not provided in the initial report, but the crisis is deemed severe enough to warrant external intervention, according to Borkena
Borkena reports a severe human rights crisis in Ethiopia, prompting calls for international intervention.
Fighting resumes in Tigray
Fighting has resumed in Ethiopia's Tigray region, prompting civilians to flee, amid fears of renewed conflict. The clashes come after a period of relative calm in the region.
26 articles across 7 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Google News Sudan, France24 Africa, RFI Africa, Mada Masr, Al Jazeera, Anadolu Agency
Civilians are fleeing due to resumed fighting in Tigray, as reported by Agenzia Fides.
Ethiopians flee Tigray amid renewed conflict
Hundreds of Ethiopians have fled to neighbouring Sudan after fighting flared up in western Tigray, with clashes between the TPLF and Ethiopian federal army reported, despite a pause in fighting since August 1st. The region has not yet recovered from the 2020-2022 war that left 600,000 dead
9 articles across 3 sources: Google News Sudan, Google News Ethiopia, France24 Africa
At least hundreds of Ethiopians have fled to Sudan, following a day-long battle in western Tigray, as reported by AFP.
Ethiopia loses $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing
Ethiopia has lost $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing, according to a warning by the African Development Bank that domestic revenue gaps threaten the country's economic transformation. The loss occurred between 2006 and 2015.
3 articles across 1 sources: Google News Ethiopia
AfDB reports Ethiopia lost $24.6 billion to trade mis-invoicing between 2006 and 2015.
Fighting escalates in Amhara Region
Clashes between Ethiopian government forces and Amhara regional forces have resulted in displacement and casualties in the Amhara Region from July 27th to August 2nd, 2026. The Amhara Association of America reported on the ongoing conflict.
Amhara Association of America reported clashes and displacement in the Amhara Region between July 27th and August 2nd, 2026.
Tigray accuses Addis Ababa of launching war
Authorities in Ethiopia's Tigray region accused the federal government of launching a military offensive on Saturday, reigniting fears of a return to war in the region, which has a history of conflict with the central government
5 articles across 2 sources: Google News Ethiopia, Africanews
Tigray authorities accused the federal government of launching a military offensive on Saturday, citing a direct attack.
Hot Regions
Tigray49 events (avg sev 3.3) +353% vs last week
North Kordofan5 events (avg sev 4) -55% vs last week
Addis Ababa10 events (avg sev 1.8) -33% vs last week
Central Equatoria7 events (avg sev 1.9) +525% vs last week
Amhara5 events (avg sev 2.4) +38% vs last week
North Darfur3 events (avg sev 4) +450% vs last week
Upper Nile3 events (avg sev 3) +120% vs last week
Oromia3 events (avg sev 2) -35% vs last week
Eastern Equatoria2 events (avg sev 3) +75% vs last week
Western Tigray2 events (avg sev 3) +600% vs last week
Actor Activity
Tigray forces8 mentions (was 1) +2700%
Ethiopian federal forces7 mentions (was 1) +2400%
Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF)5 mentions (was 2) +800%
Ethiopian army6 mentions (was 4) +425%
TPLF12 mentions (was 13) +223%
Government of Sudan5 mentions (was 6) +200%
Ethiopian forces4 mentions (was 6) +133%
African Development Bank4 mentions (was 6) +133%
Government of Ethiopia37 mentions (was 90) +44%
Rapid Support Forces (RSF)15 mentions (was 68) -22%